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Ports are the beating heart of global trade, enabling the movement of 80% of the world’s cargo by volume and about 50% by value (Verschuur et al., 2023). They are indispensable hubs, connecting ships, trucks, and railways in a seamless logistics network. In Europe, ports play a key role as economic powerhouses, linking industries, communities, and markets within the continent and beyond. From delivering fuel for energy production to supplying industrial components for factories and consumer products for everyday life, ports ensure the smooth flow of goods that underpin modern economies.
However, this critical role is increasingly at risk. Climate-induced extreme weather events are disrupting port operations with alarming frequency. These events trigger cascading effects across global supply chains, delaying shipments, increasing costs, and straining industries that depend on timely deliveries. The stakes are high. Each year, an estimated $81 billion in global trade and $122 billion in economic activity are at risk due to climate-related port disruptions (Verschuur et al., 2023). This isn’t just about lost cargo, it’s about entire industries freezing up, price spikes for essential goods, and economic instability affecting millions of livelihoods. Without proactive measures to enhance port resilience, these disruptions will only escalate, jeopardizing the vital economic lifelines that ports provide.
Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, and climate change is driving this shift. Each type of climate hazard poses unique challenges that can disrupt maritime trade and harm ports infrastructure.
High winds can halt crane operations, delaying cargo loading and unloading. During Cyclone Xaver in 2013, hurricane-force winds and storm surges flooded the Port of Hamburg, Europe’s third largest. Operations were shut down for days, stranding goods and delaying shipments across Germany and beyond. The damages exceeded €5 billion, highlighting the systemic impact a single storm can have on trade (Kettle, 2020).
Flooding is another persistent threat. In 2019, intense rains at the Port of Valencia overwhelmed drainage systems, submerging container yards and cutting off access roads. As a critical export hub for Mediterranean goods, Valencia’s delays rippled across Europe, with supermarkets facing fresh produce shortages and agricultural exporters losing millions of euros.
Droughts, while less dramatic, are equally disruptive. In 2018, record-low water levels on the Rhine River, Europe’s primary inland waterway, forced ships to reduce cargo loads or find alternate routes. The Port of Rotterdam, which depends on the Rhine, experienced severe disruptions to supply chains for bulk goods like coal, chemicals, and oil. The drought’s total cost to Europe’s economy exceeded €12 billion (Nilson et al., 2013).
Heatwaves exacerbate operational challenges. In Thessaloniki, Greece, a 2020 heatwave caused machinery breakdowns and labor shortages due to unsafe working conditions, delaying cargo handling and disrupting Mediterranean trade routes.
Rising sea levels compound these risks, threatening low-lying coastal ports. Projections suggest sea levels could rise by over one meter in parts of Europe by 2100. This would expose an additional 200 million tons of cargo annually to extreme weather risks, with northern European ports like Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg most vulnerable (Christodoulou et al., 2019).
The consequences of ignoring climate risks to ports are immense, with disruptions extending far beyond port facilities and into the heart of global supply chains. Ports are critical nodes in trade networks, and when operations falter, the ripple effects are felt by industries, businesses, and consumers worldwide. The examples mentioned above highlight the cascading impacts of port disruptions. When a single port halts operations, whether due to storms, floods, or drought, the consequences ripple across supply chains, affecting industries, markets, and consumers.
In July 2021, devastating floods across Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands disrupted inland waterways and shipping routes vital for Europe’s trade. These floods caused over €10 billion in damages, with €2.55 billion in insured losses alone (Benoit & Pancevski, 2021). The damage didn’t stop at physical infrastructure—supply chains reliant on these ports faced significant delays. Key sectors like automotive manufacturing and construction were forced to halt production due to material shortages, demonstrating how interconnected disruptions in logistics can impact entire industries.
Droughts pose equally severe threats, particularly for Europe’s inland ports and river transport systems. Europe experiences annual losses of €9 billion due to water shortages, with Spain, Italy, and France among the hardest-hit nations. Under a 1.5°C global warming scenario, drought frequency is expected to increase by 68%, rising to 82% with a 3°C warming scenario (European Joint Research Centre, 2020). The 2018 drought reduced water levels in the Rhine River to record lows, cutting cargo capacity on vessels by up to 50%. This dramatically increased shipping costs for critical goods like coal, oil, and chemicals. The disruption affected not just the Port of Rotterdam but also industries across Germany, Switzerland, and France, which depend on the Rhine for importing raw materials. The estimated economic loss exceeded €12 billion, highlighting the vast scale of such disruptions (Nilson et al., 2013).
Globally, examples abound of how climate-related port disruptions ripple across supply chains. Hurricane Sandy in 2012 severely damaged the Port of New York and New Jersey, halting operations for weeks. The economic fallout stretched beyond port facilities, disrupting logistics and delaying imports critical for industries across the United States (Smythe, 2013). Similarly, the 2022 drought along the Mississippi River reduced ship traffic by 39%, impacting agricultural exports of soybeans and corn. This led to price spikes in international markets, illustrating how disruptions at a single port can influence global commodity prices.
According to the 2011 report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), around 72% of global port authorities reported being affected by extreme weather events in 2017. These events caused significant disruptions, including delays (60%), operational breakdowns (76%), and physical damage to infrastructure (45%). The UNCTAD categorized the potential impacts of climate change on ports:
Damage to key infrastructure, such as docks, cranes, and coastal barriers, can halt operations for days or weeks. For example, subsidence, erosion, and landslides triggered by heavy rainfall weaken port foundations and hinterland connections, increasing repair and maintenance costs. Drainage systems often fail under the strain of excessive rainfall, leading to localized flooding and waterlogging, which can destabilize infrastructure further by saturating soil.
Operational safety is also compromised. High winds reduce navigation reliability, while storm surges and rough seas can damage vessels or disrupt loading activities. These disruptions force modal shifts—redirecting goods to less affected but often less efficient routes—delaying deliveries and increasing costs. In extreme cases, the cumulative economic pressure can lead to businesses relocating or shutting down, with severe consequences for local labor markets and trade-dependent economies.
The systemic impacts go beyond ports infrastructures damage. Extreme weather can alter trade structures and routes, indirectly affecting sectors like agriculture, fisheries, and energy that depend on stable supply chains. For instance, increased rainfall can flood storage areas, while reduced clearance under bridges due to sedimentation or rising water levels complicates inland transport. Emergency evacuations, growing maintenance needs, and skyrocketing replacement costs place further strain on port operators and stakeholders.
As the frequency and intensity of climate events escalate, the vulnerabilities of outdated port infrastructure, designed for a less volatile climate, become even more pronounced. Ports must now grapple with challenges to service reliability while maintaining their role as vital economic engines. Addressing these threats requires a multifaceted approach, blending immediate operational adjustments with long-term investments in resilient and adaptive infrastructure. Without proactive measures, ports risk becoming bottlenecks in global trade, jeopardizing their central role in connecting economies and supporting livelihoods.
The SAFARI project is tackling this pressing issue head-on. Funded by the European Union, SAFARI is a groundbreaking initiative focused on making ports more resilient to extreme weather events. By working with pilot ports in Seville (Spain), Dunkirk (France) and Lisbon (Portugal), and two replication ports in Tripoli (Lebanon) and Livorno (Italy), the project combines cutting-edge innovations and digital solutions tailored to the unique challenges of each location.
SAFARI is helping ports adapt in several ways. Nature-based solutions are being explored to protect ports from storm surges and protect ports ecosystem and biodiversity. Infrastructure upgrades are being designed to withstand rising sea levels and more intense weather, ensuring ports remain operational during and after extreme events. Operational resilience is also a priority. Advanced modeling systems are being developed to predict the impact of storms, floods, drought and heatwaves on port operations, enabling better preparedness. Digital twins are built to model port infrastructures and operations to numerically test solutions against a wide range of hypothetical weather scenarios. Through the creation of an innovative digital platform fed with data from the project and equipped with emergency modules, SAFARI is improving early warning systems and response plans to help ports recover quickly from disruptions and minimize downtime. By training port operators and fostering collaboration among stakeholders, the project is creating a framework for sustained resilience across Europe’s maritime network, aiming at maintaining 80% operational capacity during extreme weather events.
Ports are more than logistical nodes, they are critical enablers of a sustainable future. As Europe transitions to carbon neutrality, ports will play a key role in transporting renewable energy technologies, such as wind turbines, solar panels, and biofuels. Many ports are already adopting cleaner technologies, like electric cranes and hydrogen-powered equipment, to reduce their carbon footprints.
By addressing today’s climate risks, Europe’s ports can position themselves as drivers of resilience and sustainability. With projects like SAFARI leading the way, ports can secure their vital role in global trade while championing the green transition. Far from being passive victims of climate change, Europe’s ports can become architects of a more sustainable and resilient future.
Benoit, B. and Pancevski, B. Germany Flooding Explained: What to Know about the Devastating Downpour. The Wall Street Journal, 16. 2021
Christodoulou, A. Christidis, P. and Demirel, H. Sea-level rise in ports: a wider focus on impacts. Maritime Economics & Logistics, 21, 482-496. 2019
Cammalleri, C. Naumann, G. Mentaschi, L. Formetta, G. Forzieri, G. Gosling, S. ... and Feyen, L. Global warming and drought impacts in the EU. Publications Office of the European Union: Luxembourg. 2020
Kettle, A. J. Storm Xaver over Europe in December 2013: Overview of energy impacts and North Sea events. Advances in Geosciences, 54, 137-147. 2020
E. Nilson, I. Lingemann, B. Klein, and P. Krahe, Impact of Hydrological Change on Navigation Conditions. EU-ECCONET Report 1.4. 2013
T. Smythe, Assessing the Impacts of Hurricane Sandy on the Port of New York and New Jersey’s Maritime Responders and Response Infrastructure. 2013.
UNCTAD, Ed., Trade and development report, 2011: post-crisis policy challenges in the world economy. Genève: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2011Verschuur et al., 2023
